US POLITICS: CAN MITCH MCCONNELL & LINDSEY GRAHAM HOLD ON IN THE SENATE?

Because of the way the United States government works, the party that holds a majority in the Senate (one of the two legislative bodies) has a great deal of power. It controls whether the prospective laws passed by the House of Representatives come up for a vote. Currently, the Senate is controlled by the Republican Party, under Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a senator from Kentucky. Lindsey Graham, a senator from South Carolina, chairs the Judiciary Committee. Both face tough re-election campaigns right now.

Will they hold their seats? Or will they fall in the chaos running through U.S. politics? Before we go on, let us take a look at some of the hottest 2020 Election Betting Odds, courtesy of online bookie JAZZSports.ag

Political Futures*

*Odds are subject to change.

US Politics: Can Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham Hold on in the Senate?

Mitch McConnell has a lead of about 10 percent over the Democratic candidate, Amy McGrath. The most recent poll, as of this writing, conducted by Cygnal, has McConnell ahead of McGrath, approximately 50.2 percent to 39.9 percent. The survey included 640 likely voters in the general election in Kentucky between October 19 and 20, and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.87%.

This might seem counterintuitive, given the refusal that McConnell has shown to consider more economic stimulus measures as the pandemic moves into the fall, but Kentucky has long been a conservative state – despite also being one of the nation’s poorest.

Lindsey Graham is projected to win South Carolina’s seat in the Senate. The statistical website FiveThirtyEight.com ran a simulation with 100 possible outcomes, and Graham won in 79 of the simulations, while his opponent, Jaime Harrison, won 21 times. However, the most recent polling, provided by Data for Progress, has Harrison and Graham in a dead head at 46 percent apiece. Graham has taken a great deal of heat from Harrison for changing his position from supporting the quick confirmation process for Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, after (just two years ago) saying he would not support a nomination so close to the 2020 election. Graham has a much greater likelihood of losing his seat in the Senate than does McConnell. There’s still a week to go before the election, so expect a roller coaster in the next few days!

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